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The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over West central and adjoining East central & South Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestwards with a speed of 06 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 14th November, 2018 over Westcentral and adjoining East central & South Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.1°N and longitude 85.3°E, about 540 km east of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 640 km northeast of Nagapattinam (Tamil Nadu). It is likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours. While moving west-southwestwards further, it is likely to weaken gradually on 15th November and cross Tamil Nadu coast between Pamban and Cuddalore as a Cyclonic Storm during 15th November evening.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|14.11.18/0530||13.1/85.3||70-80 gusting to 90||Cyclonic Storm|
|14.11.18/1130||12.8/84.8||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|14.11.18/1730||12.5/84.3||90-100 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|14.11.18/2330||12.1/83.6||90-100 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|15.11.18/0530||11.4/82.0||90-100 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|15.11.18/1730||10.9/80.5||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|16.11.18/0530||10.6/78.8||50-60 gusting to 70||Deep Depression|
|16.11.18/1730||10.5/77.1||40-50 gusting to 60||Depression|
|17.11.18/0530||10.4/75.3||25-35 gusting to 45||Low|
(i) Heavy rainfall warnings:
|Region||14 November 2018*||15 November 2018*||16 November 2018*|
|Tamilnadu & Puducherry||Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining districts of south coastal Tamil Nadu from 14th Nov. evening.||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy at a few places over Tamilnadu & Puducherry. Extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places is also likely over Cuddalore, Nagappattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Tuticorin and Ramanathapuram districts.||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and very heavy at isolated places very likely over interior Tamil Nadu.|
|South Coastal Andhra Pradesh||Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely to commence from 14th November evening.||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places||Nil|
|Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places||Nil|
|Kerala||NIL||Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places|
|South Interior Karnataka||Nil||Nil||Rainfall at many places with falls at isolated places|
Legends: Red-Take Action; Orange- Be prepared; Yellow- be updated; Green: No warning
Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day
Note 1: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Note 2: Red colour warning means take action. It does not mean red alert.
(i) Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph prevails over Westcentral and adjoining Eastcentral & South Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over southwest & adjoining westcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal from 14th November 2018 evening.
- Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to commence along & off north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 14thNovember evening. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts from 15th November morning onwards.
- Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely over interior Tamilnadu, Kerala, southeast Arabian Sea along & off Kerala coast, Comorian area, Gulf of Mannar and Palk Strait on 16th November. Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely to prevail over southeast Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala coast on 17thNovember.
(ii) Sea condition
Sea condition is high over Westcentral and adjoining Eastcentral & South Bay of Bengal. It will become ‘very high’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral and southeast Bay of Bengal on 14th and high over the southwest Bay of Bengal on 15th. The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu-south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 14th November evening and high on along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast on 15th November morning onwards.
(iii) Storm Surge Warning
- Storm surge of height of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.
(iv) Damage Expected over districts of Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry:
- Major damage to thatched huts/houses, roof tops may blow off and unattached metal sheets may fly. Damage to power and communication lines. Major damage to Kutcha & minor damage to Pucca roads. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.
(v) Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts till 15th November.
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into central parts of south & central Bay of Bengal on 14th November and into southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal till 15th November.
- The fishermen, who are in deep Sea are advised to return to coasts.
- · Coastal hutment dwellers are advised to move to safer places. Other people in the affected areas to remain indoors.