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The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over Southwest and adjoining southeast & west central Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestwards with a speed of 10 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 14thNovember, 2018 over Southwest and adjoining southeast & west central Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.8°N and longitude 84.8°E, about 490 km east of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 580 km east-northeast of Nagapattinam (Tamil Nadu). It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. While moving west-southwestwards further, it is likely to weaken gradually on 15th November and cross Tamil Nadu coast between Pamban and Cuddalore during 15th November evening as a Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|14.11.18/1130||12.8/84.8||75-85 gusting to 95||Cyclonic Storm|
|14.11.18/1730||12.5/84.3||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|14.11.18/2330||12.1/83.6||90-100 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|15.11.18/0530||11.5/82.0||90-100 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|15.11.18/1130||11.2/81.2||85-95 gusting to 110||Cyclonic Storm|
|15.11.18/2330||10.7/79.7||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|16.11.18/1130||10.6/78.0||50-60 gusting to 70||Deep Depression|
|16.11.18/2330||10.5/76.2||40-50 gusting to 60||Depression|
|17.11.18/1130||10.4/74.4||25-35 gusting to 45||Low|
- Heavy rainfall warnings:
|Region||15 November 2018*||16 November 2018*|
|Tamilnadu & Puducherry||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy at a few places over Tamilnadu & Puducherry. Extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places is also likely over Cuddalore, Nagappattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Tuticorin and Ramanathapuram districts.||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and very heavy at isolated places very likely over interior Tamil Nadu.|
|South Coastal Andhra Pradesh||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places|
|Rayalaseema||Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places||Nil|
|Kerala||Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places|
Legends: Red-Take Action; Orange- Be prepared; Yellow- be updated; Green: No warning
Note 1: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Note 2: Red colour warning means take action. It does not mean red alert.
- Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph prevails over Southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over these areas from today, the 14th November 2018 evening.
- Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to commence along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today, the 14th November 2018 evening. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off central parts of Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts from 15th November morning onwards.
- Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely over interior Tamilnadu, Kerala, southeast Arabian Sea along & off Kerala coast, Comorian area, Gulf of Mannar and Palk Strait on 16thNovember. Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely to prevail over southeast Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala coast on 17th November.
- Sea condition
Sea condition is high over Southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal. It will become ‘very high’ from today, the 14th November evening and high over the southwest Bay of Bengal on 15th November. The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough along and off Tamil Nadu-south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 14th November evening and high on along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast on 15th November morning onwards.
- Storm Surge Warning
- Storm surge of height of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.
- Damage Expected over districts of Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry:
- Major damage to thatched huts/houses, roof tops may blow off and unattached metal sheets may fly. Damage to power and communication lines. Major damage to Kutcha & minor damage to Pucca roads. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.
- Action Suggested:
- Total suspension of fishing operations along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts till 15th November.
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into central parts of south & central Bay of Bengal on today, the 14thNovember and into southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal till 15th November.
- The fishermen, who are in deep Sea are advised to return to coasts.
- Coastal hutment dwellers are advised to move to safer places. Other people in the affected areas to remain indoors.