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a. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘TITLI’ over south Odisha & neighbourhood

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Titli moved northwestwards and crossed north Andhra Pradesh – south Odisha coasts, near latitude 18.8°N and longitude 84.5°E (near Palasa, Srikakulam District) to the southwest of Gopalpur, as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with estimated maximum sustained surface wind speed of 140-150 kmph gusting to 165 kmph between 0430 and 0530 hours IST of today, the 11^th October 2018. It further moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST  of today, the 11^th October 2018 over south Odisha near latitude 19.0°N and longitude 84.1°E, about 90 km west-southwest of Gopalpur and 60 km south-southeast of Phulbani.

It is very likely to move northwestwards for next 12 hours and then re-curve northeastwards towards Gangetic West Bengal across Odisha. It is very likely to weaken gradually becoming severe cyclonic storm around noon, cyclonic storm around evening and a deep depression by mid-night of today, the 11^th October 2018.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
11.10.18/0830	19.0/84.1	120-130 gusting to 145	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1130	19.3/84.0	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1730	19.5/84.0	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/2330	20.1/84.5	55-65 gusting to 75	Deep Depression
12.10.18/0530	20.7/85.1	50-60 gusting to 70	Deep Depression
12.10.18/1730	21.7/86.3	40-50 gusting to 60	Depression

 

1. Heavy rainfall warnings:

 

Region	11 Oct. 2018 (Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day)	12 Oct. 2018(Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day)	13 Oct. 2018(Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day)
Odisha	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at Isolated Places over south Odisha.	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places	Nil
North Coastal Andhra Pradesh	Rainfall at a few places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Nil	Nil
Gangetic West Bengal	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places

Assam & Meghalaya	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at Isolated Places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at Isolated Places
Mizoram & Tripura	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at Isolated Places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places

 

Legends: Red-Take Action; Orange- Be prepared; Yellow- be updated; Green: No warning Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day

 

• 2. Wind warning
• Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph very likely over Gajapati, Ganjam, Nayagarh Kandhamal & Raigada districts of Odisha during next six hours and gradually decrease thereafter becoming squally wind speed of 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph by evening. Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph very likely along & off south coastal Odisha during next 06 hours and squally wind speed of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely during subsequent 18 hours.
• Squally wind speed of 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph very likely along & off north Odisha and West Bengal coasts during next 24 hours. Squally wind speed of 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph is very likely over adjoining districts of north interior Odisha from today afternoon for subsequent 12 hours.
  3. Sea condition
• The sea condition will be very rough to high over westcentral & north Bay of Bengal and along  & off south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 06 hours. It will become very rough along & off these coasts for subsequent 24 hours and gradually improve thereafter. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along & off West Bengal and north Odisha Coasts on 11^th & 12^th October.
  4. Damage Expected over Gajapati, Ganjam, Nayagarh Kandhamal and Raigada districts of Odisha:
• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes
• Minor damage to power and communication lines
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees
• Major damage to standing crops, plantations and orchards.
  5. Action Suggested:
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal on 11^th & 12^th October 2018.
• People advised to remain indoors during next six hours in the around 100 km from the centre of the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over south Odisha .
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic needed.

Verification of Heavy Rainfall Warning issued at 0830 hours IST of 10^th September for Day-1 upto 0830 hours IST of 11^th September is given at Annexure-I.

2. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, ‘LUBAN’ over westcentral & adjoining southwest Arabian Sea:

Yesterday’s very severe cyclonic storm ‘LUBAN’ over westcentral Arabian Sea moved initially northwestawards & then westwards and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11^th October 2018 over westcentral Arabian Sea, near latitude 14.5°N and longitude 58.0°E, about 500 km east- southeast of Salalah (Oman), 490 km east-northeast of Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 670 km east- southeast of Al-Ghaidah (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify further and move west-northwestwards towards Yemen & South Oman Coasts during next 4 days.

 

Forecast track & intensity are given in the following table:

 

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
11.10.18/0830	14.5/58.0	125-135 gusting to 150	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1130	14.6/57.8	125-135 gusting to 150	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/1730	14.7/57.7	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.10.18/2330	14.9/57.3	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.10.18/0530	15.0/57.0	135-145 gusting to 160	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.10.18/1730	15.0/56.5	125-135 gusting to 150	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.10.18/0530	15.1/55.4	120-130 gusting to 145	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.10.18/1730	15.1/53.5	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm
14.10.18/0530	15.2/51.8	105-115 gusting to 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
14.10.18/1730	15.2/50.5	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
15.10.18/0530	15.3/49.1	50-60 gusting to 70	Deep Depression

Warnings:

 

• 1. Wind warning
• Gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph is prevailing over westcentral Arabian Sea. It is very likely to decrease gradually becoming 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph by 14^th October 2018 morning over westcentral Arabian Sea around the system centre.

 

1. 2. Sea condition

• • The sea condition is phenomenal around the system centre. It is very likely continue to be phenomenal over westcentral Arabian Sea till 13^th October 2018 morning and over adjoin areas of Gulf of Aden.

 

1. 3. Fishermen Warning

• • The fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of westcentral Arabian Sea & Gulf of Aden till 14^th October.