Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ over Eastcentral Arabian Sea: Cyclone Alert for Gujarat Coast

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The Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ (pronounced as VAA’YU) over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwards with a speed of about 15 kmph in last six hours andlay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11^th June, 2019 near latitude 15.0°N and longitude 70.6°E over Eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 350 km west-southwest of Goa, 510 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 650 km nearly south of Veraval (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.

It is very likely to move nearly northwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva around Veraval & Diu region as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph during early morning of 13^th June 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
11.06.19/0830	15.0/70.6	70-80 gusting to 90	Cyclonic Storm
11.06.19/1130	15.3/70.6	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
11.06.19/1730	16.0/70.6	90-100 gusting to 115	Severe Cyclonic Storm
11.06.19/2330	16.7/70.5	95-105 gusting to 120	Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.06.19/0530	17.5/70.5	100-110 gusting to 125	Severe Cyclonic Storm
12.06.19/1730	19.1/70.4	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/0530	20.8/70.3	110-120 gusting to 135	Severe Cyclonic Storm
13.06.19/1730	22.0/70.0	70-80 gusting to 90	Cyclonic Storm
14.06.19/0530	22.9/69.7	40-50 gusting to 60	Depression
14.06.19/1730	23.8/69.3	30-40 gusting to 50	Depression

Warnings:

(i) Heavy rainfall warning: 

Sub-Divisions	11 June 2019*	12 June 2019*	13 June 2019*	14 June 2019*
Konkan & Goa	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall
Saurashtra & Kutch	Rainfall at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places
South Gujarat Region	Rainfall at isolated places	Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places	Rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places	Rainfall at a few places

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.

Legends:          Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning

Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day

(ii) Wind warning

• 11^th June: Gale Wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off North Maharashtra coast  by 11^th evening. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.
• 12^th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea by 12^th night. It is very likely to be 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12^th morning and become gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph by 12^th night. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.
• 13^th June:  Gale wind speed of the order of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph very likely over north Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast in morning hours and decrease gradually thereafter. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.

(iii) Sea condition

• The Sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over eastcentral Arabian Sea on 11^th. The sea condition is very likely to become very high to phenomenal over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast from 12^th evening and over north Arabian Sea on 13^th June 2019.
• The sea condition is very likely to be rough over Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts on 11^th; rough to very rough along & off Maharashtra Coast on 12^th; very rough to high along & off Gujarat, north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea on 13^th June, 2019.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area,  along & off Kerala and Karnataka coasts on 11^th; Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra Coast on 11^th & 12^th; northeast Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12^th & 13^th.

(iv) Storm Surge Warning

Storm surge of height of about 1.0- 1.5 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying coastal areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts at the time of landfall.

(v) Damage Expected and Action suggested for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

(i) Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly. (ii) Minor damage to power and communication lines. (iii)   Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. (iv) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees. (v) Major damage to coastal crops. (vi) Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

          Action suggested:

1. Total suspension of fishing operations. (ii) Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. (iii) Movement in motor boats unsafe (June 11, 2019)