Cyclonic storm ‘PHETHAI’ over southwest & adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal

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The Cyclonic storm ‘PHETHAI’over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further north-northwestwards with a speed of 16kmph during past 06 hoursand lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 16^th December, 2018 over southwest & adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.8°N and longitude 84.0°E, about 460 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 430 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu),560 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 600 km south-southeast Kakinada (Andhra Pradesh).It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.It is very likely to move north-northwestwardsand cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada during 17^th December afternoon. However, due to unfavourable environmental conditions, it is likely to weaken slightly before landfall and cross coast as a cyclonic storm.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)	Position(Lat.°N/ long.°E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)	Category of cyclonic disturbance
16.12.18/0830	11.8/84.0	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1130	12.1/83.7	85-95 gusting to 105	Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/1730	13.0/83.0	90-100 gusting to 110	Severe Cyclonic Storm
16.12.18/2330	13.9/82.6	90-100 gusting to 110	Severe Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/0530	14.9/82.4	80-90 gusting to 100	Cyclonic Storm
17.12.18/1730	16.4/82.3	70-80 gusting to 90	Cyclonic Storm
18.12.18/0530	17.8/82.8	55-65 gusting to 75	Deep Depression
18.12.18/1730	18.6/83.5	40-50 gusting to 60	Depression

Warnings: 

1. Heavy rainfall warning

• Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places very likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh on 16^th& 17^th December. Extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on 17^th December. Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places likely over adjoining districts of north Tamil Nadu on 16^th December.
• Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely over Odisha on 17^thand heavy falls at isolated places over south Chhattisgarh on 16^th& 17^th December. Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places also likely over Jharkhand on 17^th December.
• Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal on 17^thDecember.

1. Wind warning for Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Odisha coasts

• Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph prevails along & off South Andhra Pradesh, north Tamilnadu& Puducherry coasts. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming gale wind speed of 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off central Andhra Pradesh coast and Yanam district of Puducherry on 17^th December.Gale wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is likely to prevail along & off remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh coast and squally wind speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail along & off north Tamilnadu& Puducherry coasts on 17^th December. 
• Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50kmph likely along & off South Odisha coast on 17^th December.

1. Wind warning for Sea areas

• Gale wind speed reaching 80-90kmph gusting to 100 kmph prevails over southwest & adjoining westcentralBay of Bengal.  It is very likely to become gale wind speed reaching 80-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph over westcentral Bay of Bengal on 17^th December.
• Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50kmph likely over northwest Bay of Bengal on 17^th December.

1. Sea condition

The sea condition is high over southwest & adjoining westcentralBay of Bengal around system center. The sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over westcentral& adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from 16^th evening to 17^th December. It is rough to very rough along & off south Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts and will become very rough to high along & off central Andhra Pradesh coast and Yanam district of Puducherry from 16^th evening to 17^th December evening.

1. Storm Surge Warning

Storm surge of height of about 0.5 m to 1.0 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying areas of Coastal Andhra Pradesh (East & west Godavari, Vishakhapatnam, Krishna and Guntur Districts) and Yanam district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.

1.  Damage Expected over Coastal Andhra Pradesh (East & west Godavari, Vishakhapatnam, Krishna and Guntur Districts) and Yanam district of Puducherry:

• Damage to thatched huts, minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of branches. Major damage to Kutcha and damage to Pucca roads. Uprooting of small trees and some damage to paddy crops, banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments.

1. Action suggested

• Total suspension of fishing operations along & off Andhra Pradesh coast on 16^th& 17^th December.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into southwest &westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off Andhra Pradesh, north Tamilnadu& Puducherry coasts till 17^th December.
•  The fishermen are advised not to venture along & off south Odishacoast on 17^th December.

Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised to return to the coasts.

16/12/2018